COLLEGE FOOTBALL IS BACK

09/01/2025

Week 1 Zorro Picks Update!

With so many changes to my model for this season, I thought it best to hold off promoting the picks this year until I have proven it is as successful as my analysis is suggesting.  In the meantime, I will be sharing information using the "Postseason Watch" format from last year and my model's Top 25 rankings.

Model Top 25 after Week 1:

  1. Ohio State - 323
  2. Georgia - 302
  3. South Carolina - 287
  4. Tennessee - 284
  5. Indiana - 278
  6. Ole Miss - 277
  7. South Florida - 271
  8. BYU - 268
  9. LSU - 265
  10. USC - 260
  11. Kansas - 259
  12. Georgia Tech - 258
  13. Minnesota - 255
  14. Iowa State - 255
  15. Oregon - 253
  16. Auburn - 248
  17. Penn State - 248
  18. Texas A&M - 246
  19. SMU - 243
  20. Texas State - 242
  21. Memphis - 241
  22. TCU - 239
  23. Tulane - 236
  24. UNLV - 236
  25. Western Kentucky - 235

You just have to love the first couple weeks of the season with a math model.  Things will start to clear up as time goes on.

Week 1 Thoughts:

I have way too many thoughts on this week.  First off, it's just so good to be back!  The weekend started early with games on Thursday and Friday night, kicked off Saturday with College Gameday and Lee Corso's final headgear pick, then an entire weekend of football.  In the early window, we saw Ohio State and Texas look extremely underwhelming with the Buckeyes scraping through at home.  Tennessee held off Syracuse after a strong start.  In the second window, Alabama were shocked at the newly finished FSU stadium.  Finally, the night concluded with Clemson and Klubnik showing that maybe all the hype was for naught?  It's probably too early to tell, but there were a lot of surprising results around the country.  

Who is alive?

It's only week 1!  Surely everyone is alive still, right?  Not exactly!  There are three teams this season who are ineligible for the playoffs.  Both Delaware and Missouri State are in their first season of FBS ball and due to transition rules from FCS, they are not allowed to complete in the postseason, which includes bowl games and conference championships.  Akron failed to bring their academic standards up over the last year and, as a punishment, will also be banned from the postseason.  Everyone else is still alive and yes, that includes Army and Middle Tennessee despite some ugly losses to FCS opponents.

Playoff Prediction

Every week, I will share the model's playoff prediction and my own personal opinions.

Model Prediction:

First four out:
Minnesota, Iowa State, Oregon, Auburn

First round:
#9 LSU @ #8 BYU
#12 Georgia Tech  @ #5 Indiana
#11 Kansas @ #6 Ole Miss
#10 USC @ #7 South Florida

Byes:
#1 Ohio State
#2 Georgia
#3 South Carolina
#4 Tennessee

My Prediction:

First four out:
Clemson, Oregon, Michigan, Auburn

First round:
#9 Texas @ #8 Texas Tech
#12 South Florida @ #5 Tennessee
#11 LSU @ #6 Notre Dame
#10 Florida State @ #7 USC

Second round:
#8 Texas Tech vs #1 Ohio State
#5 Tennessee vs #4 Penn State
#6 Notre Dame vs #3 Miami
#10 Florida State vs #2 Georgia

Semi-Finals:
#8 Texas Tech vs #5 Tennessee
#6 Notre Dame vs #2 Georgia

National Championship:
#8 Texas Tech vs #2 Georgia

National Champion: GEORGIA BULLDOGS

I'd like to first note that I am not at all confident in this actually happening.  I spent a long time trying to think about how this season could go and the answer I came up with was: Who knows?  Last year was crazy and this year has started with even more uncertainty.  I can't wait to see what happens down the stretch.

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