College Football - Week 3

09/14/2025

Got busy and skipped Week 2, but we are BACK for Week 3!

Model Top 25 after Week 3:

  1. Ohio State - 302
  2. Georgia - 296
  3. Ole Miss - 285
  4. LSU - 280
  5. Missouri - 276
  6. Miami (FL) - 275
  7. Oregon - 272
  8. Indiana - 270
  9. USC - 268A
  10. Penn State - 265
  11. Georgia Tech - 262
  12. Iowa State - 259
  13. Louisville - 258
  14. Auburn - 258
  15. Texas A&M - 258
  16. California - 256
  17. BYU - 256
  18. Tulane - 256
  19. Vanderbilt - 240
  20. North Texas - 247
  21. NC State - 246
  22. Oklahoma - 245
  23. Memphis - 244
  24. Illinois - 243
  25. UCF - 242

WHO IS ALIVE:

Luckily for several teams, conference play is just getting started and few terms were eliminated from playoff contention this week. However, teams such as Virginia Tech and UCLA really are on the chopping block now and we lost some 3 loss Group of 5 teams. Other teams are in a situation where the only way forward is to win their conference. Here is who was eliminated this week and why:

  • Sam Houston (CUSA), Eastern Michigan (MAC), UMass (MAC), Western Michigan (MAC) - All faced their third loss as a group of five program.  No three loss group of five program will make the playoffs this season.
  • Oregon State (Pac-12) - With no conference championship to make up for multiple losses, Oregon State will not be able to make the playoffs this season.

Now, let's take a look at conference standings for non-eliminated teams. Standings are sorted by conference standings but the overall records are in the parenthesis.

^ = one loss away from elimination
*=must win-out/win conference to make playoffs

American:

  1. Navy (3-0)
  2. Memphis (3-0)
  3. North Texas (3-0)
  4. Tulane (3-0)
  5. East Carolina (2-1)*
  6. Rice (2-1)*
  7. South Florida (2-1)*
  8. Temple (2-1)*
  9. Army (1-1)*
  10. Charlotte (1-2)*
  11. Florida Atlantic (1-2)^
  12. UTSA (1-2)^
  13. UAB (2-1)*
  14. Tulsa (1-2)^

ACC:

  1. Georgia Tech (3-0)
  2. NC State (3-0)
  3. Stanford (1-2)*
  4. California (3-0)
  5. Miami (FL) (3-0)
  6. Florida State (3-0)
  7. Louisville (2-0)
  8. North Carolina (2-1)
  9. Pittsburgh (2-1)
  10. SMU (2-1)
  11. Syracuse (2-1)
  12. Virginia (2-1)
  13. Duke (1-2)*
  14. Virginia Tech (0-3)*
  15. Wake Forest (2-1)
  16. Boston College (1-2)*
  17. Clemson (1-2)*

Big 12:

  1. Iowa State (4-0)
  2. Houston (3-0)
  3. Texas Tech (3-0)
  4. Utah (3-0)
  5. BYU (2-0)
  6. TCU (2-0)
  7. UCF (2-0)
  8. Arizona State (2-1)
  9. Baylor (2-1)
  10. Cincinnati (2-1)
  11. Kansas (2-1)
  12. West Virginia (2-1)
  13. Oklahoma State (1-1)
  14. Arizona (3-0)
  15. Colorado (1-2)*
  16. Kansas State (1-3)*

Big Ten:

  1. Oregon (3-0)
  2. USC (3-0)
  3. Illinois (3-0)
  4. Indiana (3-0)
  5. Maryland (3-0)
  6. Michigan State (3-0)
  7. Nebraska (3-0)
  8. Ohio State (3-0)
  9. Penn State (3-0)
  10. Rutgers (3-0)
  11. Washington (2-0)
  12. Iowa (2-1)
  13. Michigan (2-1)
  14. Minnesota (2-1)
  15. Wisconsin (2-1)
  16. UCLA (0-3)*
  17. Purdue (2-1)
  18. Northwestern (1-2)*

CUSA:

  1. Louisiana Tech (2-1)*
  2. Western Kentucky (2-1)*
  3. Jacksonville State (1-2)^
  4. Florida International (2-1)*
  5. Kennesaw State (1-2)^
  6. Middle Tennessee (1-2)^
  7. Missouri State (1-2)^
  8. UTEP (1-2)^
  9. New Mexico (2-1)*
  10. Liberty (1-2)^

Delaware are ineligible for the playoffs.

FBS Independents:

  1. UConn (1-2)^
  2. Notre Dame (0-2)^

MAC:

  1. Buffalo (2-1)*
  2. Bowling Green (2-1)*
  3. Toledo (2-1)*
  4. Northern Illinois (1-1)*
  5. Ball State (1-2)^
  6. Central Michigan (1-2)^
  7. Ohio (1-2)^
  8. Miami (OH) (0-2)^
  9. Kent State (1-2)^

Akron are ineligible for the playoffs

Mountain West:

  1. Utah State (2-1)*
  2. UNLV (3-0)
  3. Fresno State (3-1)*
  4. Hawaii (3-1)*
  5. New Mexico (2-1)*
  6. Wyoming (2-1)*
  7. Boise State (1-1)*
  8. Colorado (1-1)*
  9. San Diego State (1-1)*
  10. Nevada (1-2)^
  11. San Jose (0-2)^
  12. Air Force (1-1)*

Pac-12:

  1. Washington State (2-1)
  2. Oregon State (0-3)^

SEC:

  1. Ole Miss (3-0)
  2. Georgia (3-0)
  3. LSU (3-0)
  4. Vanderbilt (3-0)
  5. Auburn (3-0)
  6. Mississippi State (3-0)
  7. Missouri (3-0)
  8. Oklahoma (3-0)
  9. Texas A&M (3-0)
  10. Alabama (2-1)
  11. Texas (2-1)
  12. Arkansas (2-1)
  13. Kentucky (2-1)
  14. South Carolina (2-1)
  15. Tennessee (2-1)
  16. Florida (1-2)*

Sun Belt:

  1. Southern Miss (2-1)*
  2. Ole Dominion (2-1)*
  3. Texas State (2-1)*
  4. James Madison (1-1)*
  5. UL Monroe (1-1)*
  6. Coastal Carolina (1-2)^
  7. Georgia Southern (1-2)^
  8. Georgia State (1-2)^
  9. Marshall (1-2)^
  10. Arkansas State (1-2)^
  11. Louisiana (1-2)^
  12. South Alabama (1-2)^
  13. Troy (1-2)^
  14. App State (2-1)*

PLAYOFF PREDICTION:

The below are two playoff predictions. The first is based off my model's rankings and the second is my own personal opinion.

Model Prediction:

First four out:
Georgia Tech, Louisville, Auburn, Texas A&M

First Round:
#9 USC @ #8 Indiana
#12 Tulane @ #5 Missouri
#11 Iowa State @ #6 Miami (FL)
#10 Penn State @ #7 Oregon

Byes:
#1 Ohio State
#2 Georgia
#3 Ole Miss
#4 LSU

My Prediction:

First four out:
USC, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Indiana

First round:
#9 Iowa State @ #8 Penn State
#12 South Florida @ #5 Texas Tech
#11 Georgia Tech #6 LSU
#10 Ole Miss @ #7 Miami (FL)

Second round:
#8 Penn State vs #1 Ohio State
#5 Texas Tech vs #4 Oregon
#6 LSU vs #3 Florida State
#7 Miami (FL) vs #2 Georgia

Semifinals:
#1 Ohio State vs #5 Texas Tech
#3 Florida State vs #2 Georgia

National Championship:
#1 Ohio State vs #2 Georgia

National Champion: GEORGIA BULLDOGS

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