College Football - Week 4

09/26/2025

Late getting to it this week, but here's the update after Week 4!

Model Top 25 after Week 4:

  1. Ohio State
  2. Ole Miss
  3. Georgia
  4. Indiana
  5. Missouri
  6. Miami (FL)
  7. USC
  8. LSU
  9. Oregon
  10. BYU
  11. Louisville
  12. Penn State
  13. Oklahoma
  14. Georgia Tech
  15. Iowa State
  16. Texas A&M
  17. Vanderbilt
  18. Texas Tech
  19. Memphis
  20. UCF
  21. Washington
  22. TCU
  23. North Texas
  24. Tennessee
  25. Navy

WHO IS ALIVE:

Lots of group of five teams faced their third losses this year, which I believe is enough to eliminate them from the playoffs.  Most of the power conference teams are still alive as mathematically possible conference champions, but there are some tough roads ahead for many.  Here is who was eliminated this week and why:

  • Charlotte (AAC), Army (AAC), Liberty (CUSA), Middle Tennessee (CUSA), UTEP (CUSA), Kent State (MAC), Miami OH (MAC), Ball State (MAC), Nevada (MWC), Georgia State (SBC), Arkansas State (SBC), Louisiana (SBC), and South Alabama (SBC) - All faced their third loss as a group of five program. No three loss group of five program will make the playoffs this season.

Now, let's take a look at who is still eligible, sorted by conference. Standings are sorted by conference standings but the overall records are in the parenthesis.

^ = one loss away from elimination
*=must win-out/win conference to make playoffs

American:

  1. Navy (3-0)
  2. North Texas (4-0)
  3. Rice (3-1)*
  4. East Carolina (3-1)*
  5. Memphis (4-0)
  6. South Florida (3-1)*
  7. Tulane (3-1)*
  8. Temple (2-2)^
  9. UTSA (2-2)^
  10. Florida Atlantic (1-2)^
  11. Tulsa (2-2)^
  12. UAB (2-2)^

ACC:

  1. Georgia Tech (4-0)
  2. Syracuse (3-1)
  3. Virginia (3-1)
  4. Duke (2-2)*
  5. NC State (3-1)
  6. Stanford (1-3)
  7. Miami (4-0)
  8. Florida State (3-0)
  9. Louisville (3-0)
  10. California (3-1)
  11. Pittsburgh (2-1)
  12. North Carolina (2-2)*
  13. SMU (2-2)*
  14. Virginia Tech (1-3)*
  15. Wake Forest (2-1)
  16. Boston College (1-2)*
  17. Clemson (1-3)*

Big 12:

  1. Iowa State (4-0)
  2. Texas Tech (4-0)
  3. Houston (3-0)
  4. Arizona State (3-1)
  5. Kansas (3-1)
  6. BYU (3-0)
  7. TCU (3-0)
  8. UCF (3-0)
  9. Cincinnati (2-1)
  10. Oklahoma State (1-2)*
  11. Arizona (3-0)
  12. Utah (3-1)
  13. Baylor (2-2)*
  14. Colorado (2-2)*
  15. West Virginia (2-2)*
  16. Kansas State (1-3)*

Big Ten:

  1. USC (4-0)
  2. Indiana (4-0)
  3. Maryland (4-0)
  4. Oregon (4-0)
  5. Iowa (3-1)
  6. Michigan (3-1)
  7. Ohio State (3-0)
  8. Penn State (3-0)
  9. Washington (3-0)
  10. Minnesota (2-1)
  11. UCLA (0-3)*
  12. Illinois (3-1)
  13. Michigan State (3-1)
  14. Nebraska (3-1)
  15. Rutgers (3-1)
  16. Purdue (2-2)*
  17. Wisconsin (2-2)*
  18. Northwestern (1-2)*

CUSA:

  1. Louisiana Tech (3-1)*
  2. Western Kentucky (3-1)*
  3. Jacksonville State (2-2)^
  4. Kennesaw State (2-2)^
  5. Missouri State (2-2)^
  6. New Mexico State (2-1)*
  7. Florida International (2-2)^

FBS Independents:

  1. UConn (2-2)^
  2. Notre Dame (1-2)^

MAC:

  1. Buffalo (2-2)^
  2. Bowling Green (2-2)^
  3. Central Michigan (2-2)^
  4. Ohio (2-2)^
  5. Northern Illinois (1-2)^
  6. Toledo (2-2)^

Mountain West:

  1. Fresno State (4-1)*
  2. Utah State (3-1)*
  3. Boise State (2-1)*
  4. UNLV (4-0)
  5. New Mexico (2-1)*
  6. San Diego State (2-1)*
  7. Wyoming (2-2)*
  8. Colorado State (1-2)*
  9. San Jose (1-2)^
  10. Hawaii (3-2)^
  11. Air Force (1-2)*

Pac-12:

  1. Washington State (2-2)*

SEC:

  1. Ole Miss (4-0)
  2. LSU (4-0)
  3. Missouri (4-0)
  4. Oklahoma (4-0)
  5. Vanderbilt (4-0)
  6. Georgia (3-0)
  7. Mississippi State (4-0)
  8. Texas A&M (3-0)
  9. Texas (3-1)
  10. Alabama (2-1)
  11. Auburn (3-1)
  12. Tennessee (3-1)
  13. Kentucky (2-1)
  14. Arkansas (2-2)
  15. Florida (1-3)*
  16. South Carolina (2-2)

Sun Belt:

  1. Southern Miss (2-2)^
  2. Coastal Carolina (2-2)^
  3. Texas State (3-1)*
  4. James Madison (2-1)*
  5. Old Dominion (2-1)*
  6. UL Monroe (2-1)*
  7. Georgia Southern (2-2)^
  8. Marshall (2-2)^
  9. Troy (2-2)^
  10. App State (2-1)*

PLAYOFF PREDICTION:

The below are two playoff predictions. The first is based off my model's rankings and the second is my own personal opinion.

Model Prediction:

First four out:
Penn State, Oklahoma, Georgia Tech, Iowa State

First Round:
#9 Oregon @ #8 LSU
#12 Memphis @ #5 Missouri
#11 Louisville @ #6 Miami (FL)
#10 BYU @ #7 USC

Byes:
#1 Ohio State
#2 Ole Miss
#3 Georgia
#4 Indiana

My Prediction:

First four out:
Penn State, Vanderbilt, Iowa State, Oklahoma

First round:
#9 Tennessee @ #8 Indiana
#12 South Florida @ #5 Oregon
#11 Georgia Tech #6 Miami (FL)
#10 USC @ #7 Ole Miss

Second round:
#8 Indiana vs #1 Ohio State
#5 Oregon vs #4 Texas Tech
#6 Miami (FL) vs #3 Georgia
#7 Ole Miss vs #2 Florida State

Semifinals:
#1 Ohio State vs #4 Texas Tech
#6 Miami (FL) vs #2 Florida State

National Championship:
#1 Ohio State vs #2 Florida State

National Champion: OHIO STATE BUCKEYES

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