College Football - Week 5

09/28/2025

What a wild week in the world of college football!  Here's the current state of everything after the chaos that unfolded Saturday:

Model Top 25 after Week 5:

  1. Ole Miss
  2. Ohio State
  3. Indiana
  4. Oregon
  5. Miami (FL)
  6. Missouri
  7. Louisville
  8. Iowa State
  9. BYU
  10. Texas A&M
  11. Oklahoma
  12. Vanderbilt
  13. Georgia Tech
  14. Tennessee
  15. Texas Tech
  16. Alabama
  17. Georgia
  18. Memphis
  19. LSU
  20. Navy
  21. North Texas
  22. Arizona State
  23. USC
  24. Maryland
  25. Penn State

WHO IS ALIVE:

More group of five teams faced their third losses this year, which I believe is enough to eliminate them from the playoffs. Most of the power conference teams are still alive as mathematically possible conference champions, but there are some tough roads ahead for many. Here is who was eliminated this week and why:

  • Florida Atlantic (AAC), Tulsa (AAC), Missouri State (CUSA), Jacksonville State (CUSA), Northern Illinois (MAC), Ball State (MAC), Buffalo (MAC), Colorado State (MWC), San Jose State (MWC), Air Force (MWC), Marshall (SBC), Georgia Southern (SBC) - All faced their third loss as a group of five program. No three loss group of five program will make the playoffs this season.

Now, let's take a look at who is still eligible, sorted by conference. Standings are sorted by conference standings but the overall records are in the parenthesis.

^ = one loss away from elimination
*=must win-out/win conference to make playoffs

American:

  1. Navy (4-0)
  2. Memphis (5-0)
  3. North Texas (5-0)
  4. Tulane (4-1)*
  5. East Carolina (3-2)^
  6. Rice (3-2)^
  7. South Florida (3-1)*
  8. Temple (2-2)^
  9. UTSA (2-2)^
  10. UAB (2-2)^

ACC:

  1. Georgia Tech (5-0)
  2. Virginia (4-1)
  3. Duke (3-2)*
  4. Louisville (4-0)
  5. California (4-1)
  6. Virginia Tech (2-3)*
  7. Syracuse (3-2)*
  8. Stanford (2-3)*
  9. NC State (3-2)*
  10. Miami (4-0)
  11. North Carolina (2-2)*
  12. SMU (2-2)*
  13. Florida State (3-1)
  14. Pittsburgh (2-2)*
  15. Wake Forest (2-2)*
  16. Boston College (1-3)*
  17. Clemson (1-3)*

Big 12:

  1. Iowa State (5-0)
  2. Arizona State (4-1)
  3. BYU (4-0)
  4. Houston (4-0)
  5. Texas Tech (4-0)
  6. Cincinnati (3-1)
  7. Utah (4-1)
  8. Baylor (3-2)*
  9. Kansas (3-2)*
  10. Kansas State (2-3)*
  11. Arizona (3-1)
  12. TCU (3-1)
  13. UCF (3-1)
  14. Oklahoma State (1-3)*
  15. Colorado (2-3)*
  16. West Virginia (2-3)*

Big Ten:

  1. Indiana (5-0)
  2. Oregon (5-0)
  3. Maryland (4-0)
  4. Ohio State (4-0)
  5. Michigan (3-1)
  6. Minnesota (3-1)
  7. USC (4-1)
  8. Illinois (4-1)
  9. Iowa (3-2)
  10. Northwestern (2-2)
  11. Michigan State (3-1)
  12. Nebraska (3-1)
  13. Penn State (3-1)
  14. Washington (3-1)
  15. Purdue (2-2)
  16. Wisconsin (2-2)
  17. UCLA (0-4)*
  18. Rutgers (3-2)*

CUSA:

  1. Louisiana Tech (4-1)*
  2. Western Kentucky (4-1)*
  3. Kennesaw State (3-2)^
  4. Florida International (2-2)^
  5. New Mexico State (2-2)^

FBS Independents:

  1. UConn (3-2)^
  2. Notre Dame (2-2)^

MAC:

  1. Central Michigan (3-2)^
  2. Ohio (3-2)^
  3. Toledo (3-2)^

Mountain West:

  1. Fresno State (4-1)*
  2. Boise State (3-1)*
  3. Utah State (3-2)^
  4. Hawaii (4-2)^
  5. UNLV (4-0)
  6. New Mexico (3-1)*
  7. San Diego State (3-1)*
  8. Wyoming (2-2)^

Pac-12:

  1. Washington State (3-2)*

SEC:

  1. Ole Miss (5-0)
  2. Missouri (5-0)
  3. Vanderbilt (5-0)
  4. Oklahoma (4-0)
  5. Texas A&M (4-0)
  6. Alabama (3-1)
  7. Georgia (3-1)
  8. LSU (4-1)
  9. Tennessee (4-1)
  10. South Carolina (3-2)
  11. Texas (3-1)
  12. Mississippi State (4-1)
  13. Arkansas (2-3)*
  14. Florida (1-3)*
  15. Auburn (3-2)
  16. Kentucky (2-2)

Sun Belt:

  1. James Madison (3-1)*
  2. UL Monroe (3-1)*
  3. Southern Miss (3-2)^
  4. Coastal Carolina (2-2)^
  5. Old Dominion (3-1)*
  6. Texas State (3-1)*
  7. Troy (2-2)^
  8. App State (2-2)^

PLAYOFF PREDICTION:

The below are two playoff predictions. The first is based off my model's rankings and the second is my own personal opinion.

Model Prediction:

First four out:

Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech, Tennessee, Texas Tech

First Round:
#9 BYU @ #8 Iowa State
#12 Memphis @ #5 Miami (FL)
#11 Oklahoma @ #6 Missouri
#10 Texas A&M @ #7 Louisville

Byes:
#1 Ole Miss
#2 Ohio State
#3 Indiana
#4 Oregon

My Prediction:

First four out:
Florida State, LSU, Illinois, Tennessee

First round:
#9 Indiana @ #8 Georgia
#12 Tulane @ #5 Ohio State
#11 Penn State #6 Alabama
#10 Oklahoma @ #7 Iowa State

Second round:
#9 Indiana vs #1 Oregon
#5 Ohio State vs #4 Texas Tech
#6 Alabama vs #3 Miami (FL)
#10 Oklahoma vs #2 Ole Miss

Semifinals:
#1 Oregon vs #5 Ohio State
#6 Alabama vs #2 Ole Miss

National Championship:
#1 Oregon vs #6 Alabama

National Champion: OREGON DUCKS

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