College Football - Week 8

10/22/2025

I missed another week of updates last week, but I'm back for Week 8!  So much is changing so quickly!

Model Top 25 after Week 8:

  1. Ohio State
  2. Indiana
  3. Alabama
  4. Ole Miss
  5. Georgia
  6. Texas A&M
  7. BYU
  8. Georgia Tech
  9. Oregon
  10. Missouri
  11. Miami (FL)
  12. Louisville
  13. Vanderbilt
  14. South Florida
  15. Texas Tech
  16. Navy
  17. Notre Dame
  18. Cincinnati
  19. Oklahoma
  20. Tennessee
  21. Tulane
  22. Virginia
  23. LSU
  24. Arizona State
  25. USC

WHO IS ALIVE:

These are the teams that have been eliminated from playoff contention according to my model over the last two weeks:

  • East Carolina (AAC), Temple (AAC), Louisiana Tech (CUSA), New Mexico State (CUSA), Toledo (MAC), Utah State (MWC), New Mexico (MWC), Old Dominion (SBC), Louisiana-Monroe (SBC), Appalachian State (SBC), Texas State (SBC) - All faced their third loss as a group of five program. No three loss group of five program will make the playoffs this season.
  • Clemson (ACC), Arizona (Big 12), UCF (Big 12), Maryland (Big Ten) - With three conference losses, they are now realistically eliminated from conference championship hopes.
  • Stanford (ACC), NC State (ACC), North Carolina (ACC), Kansas State (Big 12) - Despite having only two conference losses and are still mathematically eligible for the ACC Championship, a four loss conference champion would likely result in a second group of five champion reaching the playoffs over Stanford.
  • Virginia Tech (ACC), Arkansas (SEC) - Same as above, but with five total losses now
  • Syracuse (ACC), Colorado (Big 12) - Three conference losses and four total losses
  • Florida State (ACC), Boston College (ACC), West Virginia (Big 12), Oklahoma State (Big 12), Michigan State (Big Ten), Penn State (Big Ten), Rutgers (Big Ten), Purdue (Big Ten), Wisconsin (Big Ten), South Carolina (SEC), Auburn (SEC), Kentucky (SEC) - Four conference losses
  • Washington State (Pac-12) - Four losses and no opportunity for a conference championship

Now, let's take a look at who is still eligible, sorted by conference. Standings are sorted by conference standings but the overall records are in the parenthesis.

There are 60 teams remaining!

^ = one loss away from elimination
*=must win-out/win conference to make playoffs

American:

  1. Navy (6-0)
  2. South Florida (6-1)*
  3. Tulane (6-1)*
  4. Memphis (6-1)*
  5. North Texas (6-1)*

ACC:

  1. Georgia Tech (7-0)
  2. Virginia (6-1)
  3. SMU (5-2)*
  4. Pittsburgh (5-2)*
  5. Duke (4-3)^
  6. Louisville (5-1)
  7. California (5-2)*
  8. Miami (5-1)
  9. Wake Forest (4-2)^

Big 12:

  1. BYU (7-0)
  2. Cincinnati (6-1)
  3. Arizona State (5-2)*
  4. Texas Tech (6-1)
  5. Houston (6-1)
  6. Iowa State (5-2)*
  7. TCU (5-2)*
  8. Baylor (4-3)^
  9. Utah (5-2)*
  10. Kansas (4-3)^

Big Ten:

  1. Indiana (7-0)
  2. Ohio State (7-0)
  3. Oregon (6-1)
  4. Northwestern (5-2)*
  5. USC (5-2)*
  6. Iowa (5-2)*
  7. Michigan (5-2)*
  8. Minnesota (5-2)
  9. UCLA (3-4)^
  10. Illinois (5-2)*
  11. Nebraska (5-2)*
  12. Washington (5-2)*

CUSA:

  1. Kennesaw State (5-2)^
  2. Western Kentucky (6-2)^

FBS Independents:

  1. UConn (5-2)^
  2. Notre Dame (5-2)^

MAC: All Eliminated

Mountain West:

  1. Boise State (5-2)^
  2. San Diego State (5-1)*
  3. Hawaii (6-2)^
  4. UNLV (6-1)*
  5. Fresno State (5-2)^

Pac-12: All Eliminated

SEC:

  1. Texas A&M (7-0)
  2. Alabama (6-1)
  3. Georgia (6-1)
  4. Ole Miss (6-1)
  5. Texas (5-2)
  6. Missouri (6-1)
  7. Oklahoma (6-1)
  8. Vanderbilt (6-1)
  9. LSU (5-2)
  10. Tennessee (5-2)
  11. Florida (3-4)^
  12. Mississippi State (4-3)^

Sun Belt:

  1. James Madison (6-1)*
  2. Southern Miss (5-2)^
  3. Troy (5-2)^

BOWL BOUND:

Here is the list of bowl-eligible teams by conference:

American: Navy, South Florida, Tulane, Memphis, North Texas
ACC: Georgia Tech, Virginia
Big 12: BYU, Cincinnati, Texas Tech, Houston
Big Ten: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
CUSA: Western Kentucky
FBS Independents: None
MAC: None
Mountain West: Hawaii, UNLV
Pac-12: None
SEC: Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Missouri, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt
Sun Belt: James Madison

PLAYOFF PREDICTION:

The below are two playoff predictions. The first is based off my model's rankings and the second is my own personal opinion.

Model Prediction:

First four out:
Louisville, Vanderbilt, Texas Tech, Navy

First Round:
#9 Oregon @ #8 Georgia Tech
#12 South Florida @ #5 Georgia
#11 Miami (FL) @ #6 Texas A&M
#10 Missouri @ #7 BYU

Byes:
#1 Ohio State
#2 Indiana
#3 Alabama
#4 Ole Miss

My Prediction:

First four out:
Vanderbilt, Missouri, BYU, Virginia

First round:
#9 Notre Dame@ #8 Texas Tech
#12 South Florida @ #5 Georgia
#11 Georgia Tech #6 Ole Miss
#10 Oregon @ #7 Miami

Second round:
#8 Texas Tech vs #1 Indiana
#5 Georgia vs #4 Texas A&M
#6 Ole Miss vs #3 Ohio State
#10 Oregon vs #2 Alabama

Semifinals:
#1 Indiana vs #4 Texas A&M
#3 Ohio State vs #2 Alabama

National Championship:
#1 Indiana vs #2 Alabama

National Champion: ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE

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