Who's Sleeping?

02/03/2024

It's already February!? Where has the season gone? We are now deep into conference play and we are nearing the one-month-to-go mark on the regular season.

It's time to look at who the big dance sleepers are! These are the teams that I believe will come into the tournament underrated. There are several teams this year that may not have the record to find themselves highly ranked (or ranked at all). Every year, we see somebody make a much deeper run than expected. Last year, Florida Atlantic made a surprise run to the Final Four. Two years ago, St. Peter's found themselves in the Elite Eight. Princeton, Oral Roberts, and Fairleigh Dickinson have all found early round success as 15- to 16-seeds, as well. The word "madness" will forever be linked to the NCAA Tournament for a reason.

So, without further ado, who will be the reason this year?

Texas Longhorns

Texas had an amazing football season this past year. Now, attention turns to the Longhorns basketball team. Currently unranked, they struggled early in the year, but snapped their losing streak today with a HUGE win over conference rivals TCU. ESPN's bracketology has them sitting around a 9-seed while my model doesn't even have them in the tournament. I argue that Texas could sneak in as an 11-seed First Four team and shock some folks on the way to a Sweet 16 or an Elite Eight performance if they can find their rhythm. It's a steep uphill to get into the tournament at this point, but keep an eye out.

Indiana State Sycamores

Indiana State is not exactly synonymous with basketball success. They have failed to make the NCAA Tournament since 2011 and have failed to win a game since 2001. They did, however, find themselves as national runners-up in 1979, but that was a slightly different era of college basketball This year, things are looking up for the Sycamores. A dominant conference showing so far has them favored to win the Missouri Valley conference. I predict we will see them somewhere in the 6- to 11-seed range with a shot to break some brackets. It would not surprise me at all of Indiana State wind up in the second weekend of the tournament.

Northwestern Wildcats

Northwestern have already proven that they can be giant-killers this season with their upset win over #1 (at the time) Purdue. They have been a strong side in the Big Ten, but just have not been able to hang with the likes of Purdue and Wisconsin. Come the NCAA Tournament, though, the Wildcats could find themselves in a comfortable 5- to 8-seed favorite slot with a chance to do some serious damage. Could they be a team to knock out a 1-seed? I predict Northwestern have at least one win this year with a serious shot at the second weekend.

Auburn Tigers

Auburn had a rough week last week dropping to conference games, but they were both on the road and against strong opposition. Put them in a neutral sight in the NCAA Tournament and it's possible we see another deep Auburn run like we saw in 2019. I predict Auburn will coast into the second weekend of games with the opportunity for more. They have a good shot at the SEC title along the road, as well.

South Carolina Gamecocks

Staying in the SEC, the Gamecocks of South Carolina have had an intriguing start to conference play. With massive wins over both Kentucky and Tennessee (teams many will pick to end up in the Final Four), they have proven that they are capable of great things. I predict South Carolina will shock somebody in the tournament and make it at least one round further than they "should" based off their ranking.

Seton Hall Pirates

Seton Hall are another one of those lower ranked teams who have dropped some shocking upsets along the way this year. Wins over UConn, Providence, and Marquette are their crowning achievements so far this season, but could a trip to the Sweet 16 be on their radar? I predict Seton Hall sneak in as an 11-seed and win at least one upset game before bowing out.

New Mexico Lobos

The last team I will be highlighting in this article is New Mexico. With some big conference wins over San Diego State, Utah State, and Nevada, it is a serious possibility that the Lobos will win the Mountain West and find themselves with a decent seed going into the NCAA Tournament. ESPN's bracketology has them as an 8-seed, but my model has them all the way up at a 4-seed! I predict New Mexico will pull off an upset or two and will find themselves as an unlikely participant in the Sweet 16 this year.

There are plenty of other teams out there that may be underappreciated right now. Marquette, Providence, and Michigan State come to mind immediately, but I will save a deeper dive into them for a later date. For now, it's time to sit back, relax, and enjoy some chaos as the regular season nears its end.

(Image created using Midjourney)